When Will Covid Pandemic End? Vaccine Calculator Shows 7 Years At Current Rate


Our new calculator shows how long it will take states and countries to vaccinate 75% of their populations

When will the pandemic end? It’s the question hanging over just about everything since Covid-19 took over the world last year. The answer can be measured in vaccinations.

Bloomberg has built the biggest database of Covid-19 shots given around the world, with more than 119 million doses administered worldwide. U.S. science officials such as Anthony Fauci have suggested it will take 70% to 85% coverage of the population for things to return to normal. Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows that some countries are making far more rapid progress than others, using 75% coverage with a two-dose vaccine as a target.

Israel, the country with the highest vaccination rate in the world, is headed for 75% coverage in just two months. The U.S. will get there just in time to ring in the 2022 New Year (though North Dakota could get there six months sooner than Texas). With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace.

Bloomberg’s calculator provides a snapshot in time, designed to put today’s vaccination rates into perspective. It uses the most recent rolling average of vaccinations, which means that as vaccination numbers pick up, the time needed to hit the 75% threshold will fall.

The calculations will be volatile, especially in the early days of the rollout, and the numbers can be distorted by temporary disruptions.

For example, New York’s target date was briefly pushed out to 17 months this week after a winter blizzard prevented some from getting vaccinated (it’s now back down to 13 months). Likewise, Canada’s vaccination rate dropped by half in recent weeks following reports of delayed vaccine shipments. Based on Canada’s latest rate of inoculations it would take more than 10 years to reach 75% coverage. That might serve as a wake-up call to Canadian politicians and health officials, but it doesn’t mean the country is doomed to a decade of social distancing. Canada has contracts to buy more vaccine doses per person than any other country, and its vaccination rates are expected to climb.

The pace is likely to accelerate further as more vaccines become available. Some of the world’s biggest vaccine-manufacturing hubs in India and Mexico are only just getting started. More than 8.5 billion doses of vaccine have been contracted by countries through more than 100 agreements tracked by Bloomberg. Only a third of countries have even begun their vaccination campaigns.

A Collective Defense
Vaccinations protect against Covid-19 within a few weeks of getting the shots. But if just a few people in a community get vaccinated, the virus can continue to spread unchecked. As more people get the vaccine, groups of people start to build a collective defense against the virus so that isolated sparks of infection burn out instead of spreading into an outbreak. The concept is known as herd immunity.

In the scientific community, there are conflicting definitions for when herd immunity is achieved. Is it when enough people are protected that it begins to have a measurable effect on the speed of transmission? That could begin well before 75% of people are fully vaccinated. Others define it as the point when outbreaks can no longer be sustained. For example, even if there’s a cluster of measles cases in an unvaccinated community, herd immunity prevents it from rippling across a country.

How We Run the Numbers
The vaccines available today require two doses for full vaccination. Our calculations for coverage are based on two doses per person in the population but don’t distinguish between first doses or second doses administered. Those breakdowns can distort daily vaccination rates and aren’t available in more than 20% of the countries we’re tracking.

A new vaccine by Johnson & Johnson recently showed positive results using a single dose in a large clinical trial. If approved, we’ll adjust the number of doses required proportionate to its market share in each country.

The vaccines haven’t been authorized for use in children — those studies are currently underway. Our calculator, like the virus, includes children in the population needed to be protected.

Brace Yourself: Long-Haul Travel May Not Get Going Until 2023

One metric Bloomberg’s calculator doesn’t account for is any level of natural immunity that might result from recovering from Covid-19. It’s possible that hard-hit places might require a lower level of vaccination to prevent widespread transmission. While there’s evidence that people who recover from illness do retain some level of natural defenses, it’s unclear how much protection is offered or how long it might last. The vaccine is still recommended for people who have recovered from illness.

The calculator is the latest feature from Bloomberg’s Covid-19 Tracker. The projections are updated daily and are based on the average daily vaccinations in data gathered from 67 countries and the U.S. states and territories. Countries may be excluded when they are in the earliest stages of vaccinations or if they provide infrequent updates on their vaccination numbers.

More than 119 million shots have been given. See the latest numbers on Bloomberg’s Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

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The spread of coronavirus in the U.S. continues to slow, with the country ending its first week since June with no days of infections exceeding 30,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that under-vaccinated areas in the U.S. could become hot spots for a mutation of the coronavirus first detected in India and is increasing surveillance of the more-transmissible variant.

The U.K. government pushed back on claims from the former chief aide of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that officials pursued a herd-immunity strategy in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Key Developments:
Global Tracker: Cases pass 166.8 million; deaths exceed 3.4 million

Vaccine Tracker: More than 1.65 billion doses have been given

Data revisions leave Taiwan unsure where outbreak is heading

What’s the best Covid vaccine? Why it’s not so simple: QuickTake

GlaxoSmithKline will make sure it’s on the front lines of the next pandemic

Vaccine tourists urged to read fine print on trips overseas

Subscribe to a daily update on the virus from Bloomberg’s Prognosis team here. Type CVID on the terminal for global data on cases and deaths.

Three at Wuhan Lab Hospitalized in Late 2019, WSJ Reports (3:20 p.m. NY)
Three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology sought hospital care in November 2019, about the time when experts say the coronavirus began circulating around the Chinese city, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The newspaper cited a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could bolster the theory that the pandemic began at the laboratory, which studied coronaviruses. No official conclusion has been made about the origin of the virus, and many nations, including the U.S., have criticized China for a lack transparency, without overtly embracing the lab-leak theory, which had been pushed by the Trump administration.

California Deaths Decline (2:48 p.m. NY)
California’s deaths dropped to 33 from 50 the day before. Cases rose to 1,308 from 1,186, a rate of 2.8 new cases per 100,000. California has administered more than 36 million vaccines in total. The state is preparing for its reopening on June 15, when it’s easing mask requirements and lifting capacity limits for most venues.

France Deaths Lowest Since Fall (1:36 p.m. NY)

France reported the lowest daily increases in coronavirus-related deaths since October, in a sign that the pandemic’s grip on the country is loosening. The 70 additional fatalities registered over the past 24 hours bring the official toll to 108,596. France reported 9,704 new cases, about a third less than the seven-day average.

Gottlieb Says Covid Profile Changing (12:22 p.m. NY)
Falling hospitalizations from Covid-19 show a “rapidly-declining vulnerability” in the U.S., as the people getting infected — sharply falling, but still averaging over 25,000 a day in the past week — tend to be younger and less vulnerable to complications, said former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

Gottlieb said on CBS that many in the U.S. are gradually recalibrating their approach to masks, social distancing and other measures as cases and deaths fall sharply.

“We need to make a judgment about what our comfort is. A lot of people have spent a year wearing masks and taking precautions, so it will take some time for us to get comfortable again going into settings without those precautions,” he said.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott said his decision to remove mask mandates and to allow businesses to open at full capacity as early as March was the “right move.”

“Of course, President Biden and the Democrats railed against it,” he said Sunday on Fox News. “Democrats said that I had issued a death warrant.”

New cases and deaths have been declining in Texas since March. Last week, the state reported zero virus-related deaths for the first time in more than a year. About 43% of the population in Texas has received at least one dose of vaccine, behind the U.S. average of almost 49%, according to Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.

Italy Reports Fewest Deaths This Year (11:58 a.m. NY)
Italy on Sunday reported the lowest number of daily coronavirus-related deaths this year, according to Ansa. There were 3,995 new virus cases compared with 4,717 a day before and 72 deaths compared with 125 on Saturday.

N.Y. Positive Test Rate Dips (11:48 a.m. NY)
New York state’s single-day positive test rate dropped to .77%, the lowest since late August, Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a statement. The state’s positive tests are among the lowest in the U.S., with a seven-day average of .92%.

Cuomo reported 1,073 new infections, in line with the dropping caseload, and 12 deaths. Hospitalizations continue to fall.

U.S. Outbreak Continues to Weaken (8:16 a.m. NY)
The U.S. reported just over 18,700 new cases Saturday, capping the first week since June with no days of infections exceeding 30,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg. Average daily infections dropped to about 25,600, compared with almost 217,500 at the end of the first week that vaccines were rolled out in the U.S. in mid-December.

A further 481 fatalities were recorded, capping a week with the fewest fatalities since the end of March 2020.

Norway Earmarks Priority Shots (8:06 a.m. NY)
Norway has decided to set aside 500 vaccine doses for persons in socially critical functions, the government said in a statement Saturday. Members of parliament, government and the health directorate are among those who will be prioritized.

U.K. Denies Cummings Claims (7:05 a.m. NY)
The U.K. government pushed back on claims from the former chief aide of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that officials pursued a herd-immunity strategy in the early days of the pandemic. Dominic Cummings unleashed a series of tweets on Saturday criticizing the U.K.’s response.

He said that letting enough citizens become infected in order to reach natural herd immunity was the “official plan in all docs/graphs/meetings” until early March 2020, when it became clear that such a policy would lead to catastrophe.

When asked about the allegations in an interview on the BBC on Sunday, Home Secretary Priti Patel said that was “not at all” the plan. Jenny Harries, chief executive of the U.K. Health Security Agency, also said it wasn’t the nation’s strategy.

Germany Vows Summer Easing (5:51 p.m. HK)

Germany’s health minister, Jens Spahn, has promised a wide-ranging easing of pandemic restrictions during the summer if the country’s seven-day incidence rate falls below 20. “Last summer the rate was below 20. We should aim for that again,” Spahn told the Sunday edition of Bild. According to the Robert Koch Institute, Germany has a seven-seven-day incidence rate of 64.5. That means that there are 64.5 new infections per 100,000 individuals over a period of seven days.

CDC on Variant Watch (5:01 p.m. HK)

Federal health officials are ramping up their surveillance of the highly transmissible Covid-19 variant first identified in India, as experts warn that under-vaccinated areas in the U.S. could become hot spots for the mutation.

While U.S. cases attributed to the B.1.617 variant currently sit below 1%, the growth rate remains unclear due to the small sample size. One science group said the strain could be as much as 50% more transmissible than B.1.1.7, the variant that emerged from the U.K. That mutation was first seen in the U.S. in late December, and is now dominant nationally.

India Cases Lowest in More Than a Month (2:38 p.m. HK)

India’s new coronavirus cases continued to slow with a daily total of 240,842 on Sunday, the lowest in more than a month. Meanwhile, India’s capital extended its lockdown until May 31 as it halted vaccinations of people age 18 to 44 due to a shortage of jabs. India and scores of other World Trade Organization members made a fresh appeal for a three-year patent waiver on products and technology used in the treatment of Covid-19, the Economic Times reported.

CDC Probes Cases of Youth Heart Inflammation (7:17 a.m. HK)
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating “relatively few” reports of a heart problem in adolescents and young adults after a Covid-19 vaccination.

A report from a meeting of the agency’s safety group on May 17 said that most discovered cases of myocarditis “appear to be mild” and could be unrelated to vaccinations. Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart muscle often found after an infection.

The cases were mostly in adolescents and young adults and more often in males than females. The report added that the cases occurred more often after a second dose than the first and were typically found within four days after infection.

— With assistance by Ian Fisher, Katharine Gemmell, Emily Ashton, Chiara Remondini, Yueqi Yang, Ros Krasny, Gaspard Sebag, and Linus Chua

Author: Tom Randall

Source: Bloomberg : When Will Life Return to Normal? In 7 Years at Today’s Vaccine Rates